Cameron Larkin .com

THERE’S NO JEWELL BUT A QUEEN WILL BE CROWNED

Tomorrow’s Crown Oaks (2500m) was a one horse race until Sunday morning when racing fans woke up to updates all over Twitter including @InnerSanctum that Mark Kavanagh’s awesome filly Atlantic Jewell had torn a muscle in her rump.

Kavanagh, who also lost Whobegotyou and December Draw throughout the spring, will now be just a spectator when the barriers crash open and the fillies jump for the riches.

With the star three-year old in the spelling paddock, the race becomes a close affair which should be tightly fought out to the winning post.

The four who I believe hold the keys to taking home the winners prize money are Dowager Queen, Rahveel and Vittoria.

THE BETTING RING:

Dowager Queen is the 3.80 favourite from Mosheen (4.40) and Rahveel (6.50). The David Hayes trained daughter of Redoute’s Choice, Flame Of Lanka, has firmed slightly into 26 from 34/31. Vittoria has eased. After initially opening at 9.50, Craig Newitt’s mount has drifted to 11-1.

THE ANALYSIS:

Dowager Queen heads into the Oaks with good group form including the Flight Stks and the Wakeful on Derby Day where she ran third to Atlantic Jewell. Her run two starts back in the listed race at Caulfield was very good and she didn’t get moving till very late. She finished off OK in the Wakeful however wasn’t stunning. The question is will Rogerson’s filly run a strong enough 2500m needed to win? Dowager Queen does take a little to get going and with a slow pace it may not suit. Hugh Bowman replaced Craig Williams in the saddle.

I liked the run of Rahveel in the Wakeful. Yes she finished second so it isn’t anything out of left field but she sat just off the lead and stuck to her guns. By Zabeel and looks like she will stay the 2500m. She is having her seventh run this preparation and it is her first preparation I must add, however the Leon Corstens trained bay looks like a tough youngster.

The value runner must be Vittoria. Mick Kent will go in with strong confidence after his filly finished off well in the Sportingbet listed event at Caulfield on 15 October. This filly is just waiting for the 2500m on Thursday. She was ordinary in her only run at Flemington over 1800m but then stepped out and showed form when fourth to Gliding. If you forget the Caulfield run and focus on the step up in distance, this filly must be added into the top chances. Has concussion plates on so a query there.

THE VERDICT:

For me it’s Dowager Queen who will salute in the Oaks. She is a tough filly with the miles in her legs to get a strong 2500m. The key with Rogerson’s youngster is that turn of foot at the end of her races. If Bowman is successful on the filly then it will be the second group one in just a few days that Craig Williams has missed out on due to suspension. Next for me is Rahveel then Vittoria, Gliding and Pentimento.

Horse

Odds

Dowager Queen 3.80
Mosheen 4.40
Rahveel 6.50
Gliding 7.00
Vittoria 11.00
Pentimento 16.00
Roma Giaconda 17.00
Flame Of Lanka 26.00
Gioe 26.00
Fallen One 31.00
Lady Jouster 41.00
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